
EVERYDAY PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS: Health, Elections, Gambling and War
by Woolfson, Michael M.Rent Textbook
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Summary
Table of Contents
Introduction | p. 1 |
The Nature of Probability | p. 5 |
Probability and Everyday Speech | p. 5 |
Spinning a Coin | p. 6 |
Throwing or Spinning Other Objects | p. 8 |
Problems 1 | p. 10 |
Combining Probabilities | p. 13 |
Either-or Probability | p. 13 |
Both-and Probability | p. 15 |
Genetically Inherited Disease - Just Gene Dependent | p. 16 |
Genetically Dependent Disease - Gender Dependent | p. 19 |
A Dice Game - American Craps | p. 21 |
Problems 2 | p. 23 |
A Day at the Races | p. 25 |
Kinds of Probability | p. 25 |
Betting on a Horse | p. 27 |
The Best Conditions for a Punter | p. 31 |
Problem 3 | p. 33 |
Making Choices and Selections | p. 35 |
Children Leaving a Room | p. 35 |
Picking a Team | p. 37 |
Choosing an Email Username | p. 40 |
The UK National Lottery | p. 41 |
Problems 4 | p. 44 |
Non-Intuitive Examples of Probability | p. 45 |
The Birthday Problem | p. 45 |
Crown and Anchor | p. 49 |
To Switch or Not to Switch - That is the Question | p. 52 |
Problems 5 | p. 54 |
Probability and Health | p. 55 |
Finding the Best Treatment | p. 55 |
Testing Drugs | p. 58 |
Problems 6 | p. 64 |
Combining Probabilities; The Craps Game Revealed | p. 67 |
A Simple Probability Machine | p. 67 |
Pontoon - A Card Game | p. 70 |
The Throwers Chance of Winning at American Craps | p. 72 |
Problems 7 | p. 75 |
The UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice, and Crooked Wheels | p. 77 |
The Need to Test for Fairness | p. 77 |
Testing Random Numbers | p. 79 |
The UK National Lottery | p. 82 |
American Craps with Loaded Dice | p. 84 |
Testing for a Loaded Die | p. 89 |
The Roulette Wheel | p. 91 |
Problems 8 | p. 93 |
Block Diagrams | p. 95 |
Variation in Almost Everything | p. 95 |
A Shoe Manufacturer | p. 96 |
Histogram Shapes | p. 99 |
Lofty and Shorty | p. 101 |
Problem 9 | p. 104 |
The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution | p. 105 |
Probability Distributions | p. 105 |
The Normal Distribution | p. 108 |
The Variance and Standard Deviation | p. 110 |
Properties of Normal Distributions | p. 111 |
A Little Necessary Mathematics | p. 114 |
Some Special Numbers | p. 114 |
Powers of Numbers | p. 115 |
The Form of the Normal Distribution | p. 117 |
Random and Systematic Errors | p. 117 |
Some Examples of the Normal Distribution | p. 119 |
Electric Light Bulbs | p. 119 |
People on Trolleys and Under-Used Resources | p. 120 |
Problems 10 | p. 123 |
Statistics - The Collection and Analysis of Numerical Data | p. 125 |
Too Much Information | p. 125 |
Another Way of Finding the Variance | p. 126 |
From Regional to National Statistics | p. 127 |
Problems 11 | p. 130 |
The Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse Kicks | p. 131 |
Rare Events | p. 131 |
Typing a Manuscript | p. 133 |
The Poisson Distribution as a Formula | p. 135 |
Death by Horse Kicks | p. 137 |
Some Other Examples of the Poisson Distribution | p. 139 |
Flying Bomb Attacks on London | p. 139 |
Clustering of a Disease | p. 141 |
Some Further Examples | p. 142 |
Problems 12 | p. 143 |
Predicting Voting Patterns | p. 145 |
Election Polls | p. 145 |
Polling Statistics | p. 146 |
Combining Polling Samples | p. 149 |
Polling with More than Two Parties | p. 151 |
Factors Affecting Polls and Voting | p. 153 |
Problems 13 | p. 154 |
Taking Samples - How Many Fish in the Pond? | p. 155 |
Why do we Sample? | p. 155 |
Finding out from Samples | p. 156 |
An Illustrative Example | p. 158 |
General Comments on Sampling | p. 160 |
Quality Control | p. 160 |
How Many Fish in the Pond? | p. 162 |
Problems 14 | p. 164 |
Differences - Rats and IQs | p. 165 |
The Significance of Differences | p. 165 |
Significantly Different - So What! | p. 167 |
Problem 15 | p. 170 |
Crime is Increasing and Decreasing | p. 171 |
Crime and the Reporting of Crime | p. 171 |
The Trend for Overall Crime in England and Wales | p. 172 |
Vehicle Crime, Burglary, and Violent Crime | p. 174 |
Homicide | p. 177 |
Crime and Politicians | p. 179 |
Problem 16 | p. 181 |
My Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a Day | p. 183 |
Genetics and Disease | p. 183 |
The Incidence of Smoking in the United Kingdom | p. 185 |
The Smoking Lottery | p. 187 |
Problem 17 | p. 189 |
Chance, Luck, and Making Decisions | p. 191 |
The Winds of Chance | p. 191 |
Choices | p. 194 |
I Want a Lucky General | p. 195 |
To Fight or Not to Fight - That is the Question | p. 197 |
The Mathematics of War | p. 200 |
Problem 18 | p. 204 |
Solutions to Problems | p. 205 |
Index | p. 221 |
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
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