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## Summary

## Table of Contents

Introduction | p. 1 |

The Nature of Probability | p. 5 |

Probability and Everyday Speech | p. 5 |

Spinning a Coin | p. 6 |

Throwing or Spinning Other Objects | p. 8 |

Problems 1 | p. 10 |

Combining Probabilities | p. 13 |

Either-or Probability | p. 13 |

Both-and Probability | p. 15 |

Genetically Inherited Disease - Just Gene Dependent | p. 16 |

Genetically Dependent Disease - Gender Dependent | p. 19 |

A Dice Game - American Craps | p. 21 |

Problems 2 | p. 23 |

A Day at the Races | p. 25 |

Kinds of Probability | p. 25 |

Betting on a Horse | p. 27 |

The Best Conditions for a Punter | p. 31 |

Problem 3 | p. 33 |

Making Choices and Selections | p. 35 |

Children Leaving a Room | p. 35 |

Picking a Team | p. 37 |

Choosing an Email Username | p. 40 |

The UK National Lottery | p. 41 |

Problems 4 | p. 44 |

Non-Intuitive Examples of Probability | p. 45 |

The Birthday Problem | p. 45 |

Crown and Anchor | p. 49 |

To Switch or Not to Switch - That is the Question | p. 52 |

Problems 5 | p. 54 |

Probability and Health | p. 55 |

Finding the Best Treatment | p. 55 |

Testing Drugs | p. 58 |

Problems 6 | p. 64 |

Combining Probabilities; The Craps Game Revealed | p. 67 |

A Simple Probability Machine | p. 67 |

Pontoon - A Card Game | p. 70 |

The Throwers Chance of Winning at American Craps | p. 72 |

Problems 7 | p. 75 |

The UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice, and Crooked Wheels | p. 77 |

The Need to Test for Fairness | p. 77 |

Testing Random Numbers | p. 79 |

The UK National Lottery | p. 82 |

American Craps with Loaded Dice | p. 84 |

Testing for a Loaded Die | p. 89 |

The Roulette Wheel | p. 91 |

Problems 8 | p. 93 |

Block Diagrams | p. 95 |

Variation in Almost Everything | p. 95 |

A Shoe Manufacturer | p. 96 |

Histogram Shapes | p. 99 |

Lofty and Shorty | p. 101 |

Problem 9 | p. 104 |

The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution | p. 105 |

Probability Distributions | p. 105 |

The Normal Distribution | p. 108 |

The Variance and Standard Deviation | p. 110 |

Properties of Normal Distributions | p. 111 |

A Little Necessary Mathematics | p. 114 |

Some Special Numbers | p. 114 |

Powers of Numbers | p. 115 |

The Form of the Normal Distribution | p. 117 |

Random and Systematic Errors | p. 117 |

Some Examples of the Normal Distribution | p. 119 |

Electric Light Bulbs | p. 119 |

People on Trolleys and Under-Used Resources | p. 120 |

Problems 10 | p. 123 |

Statistics - The Collection and Analysis of Numerical Data | p. 125 |

Too Much Information | p. 125 |

Another Way of Finding the Variance | p. 126 |

From Regional to National Statistics | p. 127 |

Problems 11 | p. 130 |

The Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse Kicks | p. 131 |

Rare Events | p. 131 |

Typing a Manuscript | p. 133 |

The Poisson Distribution as a Formula | p. 135 |

Death by Horse Kicks | p. 137 |

Some Other Examples of the Poisson Distribution | p. 139 |

Flying Bomb Attacks on London | p. 139 |

Clustering of a Disease | p. 141 |

Some Further Examples | p. 142 |

Problems 12 | p. 143 |

Predicting Voting Patterns | p. 145 |

Election Polls | p. 145 |

Polling Statistics | p. 146 |

Combining Polling Samples | p. 149 |

Polling with More than Two Parties | p. 151 |

Factors Affecting Polls and Voting | p. 153 |

Problems 13 | p. 154 |

Taking Samples - How Many Fish in the Pond? | p. 155 |

Why do we Sample? | p. 155 |

Finding out from Samples | p. 156 |

An Illustrative Example | p. 158 |

General Comments on Sampling | p. 160 |

Quality Control | p. 160 |

How Many Fish in the Pond? | p. 162 |

Problems 14 | p. 164 |

Differences - Rats and IQs | p. 165 |

The Significance of Differences | p. 165 |

Significantly Different - So What! | p. 167 |

Problem 15 | p. 170 |

Crime is Increasing and Decreasing | p. 171 |

Crime and the Reporting of Crime | p. 171 |

The Trend for Overall Crime in England and Wales | p. 172 |

Vehicle Crime, Burglary, and Violent Crime | p. 174 |

Homicide | p. 177 |

Crime and Politicians | p. 179 |

Problem 16 | p. 181 |

My Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a Day | p. 183 |

Genetics and Disease | p. 183 |

The Incidence of Smoking in the United Kingdom | p. 185 |

The Smoking Lottery | p. 187 |

Problem 17 | p. 189 |

Chance, Luck, and Making Decisions | p. 191 |

The Winds of Chance | p. 191 |

Choices | p. 194 |

I Want a Lucky General | p. 195 |

To Fight or Not to Fight - That is the Question | p. 197 |

The Mathematics of War | p. 200 |

Problem 18 | p. 204 |

Solutions to Problems | p. 205 |

Index | p. 221 |

Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |

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