EVERYDAY PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS: Health, Elections, Gambling and War

by Woolfson, Michael M.

ISBN13: 9781848160316

ISBN10: 1848160313

Format: Hardcover

Pub. Date: 2008-07-30

Publisher(s): World Scientific Pub Co Inc

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Summary

Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways - as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often, information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to present a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways. Book jacket.

Introduction	p. 1
The Nature of Probability	p. 5
Probability and Everyday Speech	p. 5
Spinning a Coin	p. 6
Throwing or Spinning Other Objects	p. 8
Problems 1	p. 10
Combining Probabilities	p. 13
Either-or Probability	p. 13
Both-and Probability	p. 15
Genetically Inherited Disease - Just Gene Dependent	p. 16
Genetically Dependent Disease - Gender Dependent	p. 19
A Dice Game - American Craps	p. 21
Problems 2	p. 23
A Day at the Races	p. 25
Kinds of Probability	p. 25
Betting on a Horse	p. 27
The Best Conditions for a Punter	p. 31
Problem 3	p. 33
Making Choices and Selections	p. 35
Children Leaving a Room	p. 35
Picking a Team	p. 37
Choosing an Email Username	p. 40
The UK National Lottery	p. 41
Problems 4	p. 44
Non-Intuitive Examples of Probability	p. 45
The Birthday Problem	p. 45
Crown and Anchor	p. 49
To Switch or Not to Switch - That is the Question	p. 52
Problems 5	p. 54
Probability and Health	p. 55
Finding the Best Treatment	p. 55
Testing Drugs	p. 58
Problems 6	p. 64
Combining Probabilities; The Craps Game Revealed	p. 67
A Simple Probability Machine	p. 67
Pontoon - A Card Game	p. 70
The Throwers Chance of Winning at American Craps	p. 72
Problems 7	p. 75
The UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice, and Crooked Wheels	p. 77
The Need to Test for Fairness	p. 77
Testing Random Numbers	p. 79
The UK National Lottery	p. 82
American Craps with Loaded Dice	p. 84
Testing for a Loaded Die	p. 89
The Roulette Wheel	p. 91
Problems 8	p. 93
Block Diagrams	p. 95
Variation in Almost Everything	p. 95
A Shoe Manufacturer	p. 96
Histogram Shapes	p. 99
Lofty and Shorty	p. 101
Problem 9	p. 104
The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution	p. 105
Probability Distributions	p. 105
The Normal Distribution	p. 108
The Variance and Standard Deviation	p. 110
Properties of Normal Distributions	p. 111
A Little Necessary Mathematics	p. 114
Some Special Numbers	p. 114
Powers of Numbers	p. 115
The Form of the Normal Distribution	p. 117
Random and Systematic Errors	p. 117
Some Examples of the Normal Distribution	p. 119
Electric Light Bulbs	p. 119
People on Trolleys and Under-Used Resources	p. 120
Problems 10	p. 123
Statistics - The Collection and Analysis of Numerical Data	p. 125
Too Much Information	p. 125
Another Way of Finding the Variance	p. 126
From Regional to National Statistics	p. 127
Problems 11	p. 130
The Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse Kicks	p. 131
Rare Events	p. 131
Typing a Manuscript	p. 133
The Poisson Distribution as a Formula	p. 135
Death by Horse Kicks	p. 137
Some Other Examples of the Poisson Distribution	p. 139
Flying Bomb Attacks on London	p. 139
Clustering of a Disease	p. 141
Some Further Examples	p. 142
Problems 12	p. 143
Predicting Voting Patterns	p. 145
Election Polls	p. 145
Polling Statistics	p. 146
Combining Polling Samples	p. 149
Polling with More than Two Parties	p. 151
Factors Affecting Polls and Voting	p. 153
Problems 13	p. 154
Taking Samples - How Many Fish in the Pond?	p. 155
Why do we Sample?	p. 155
Finding out from Samples	p. 156
An Illustrative Example	p. 158
General Comments on Sampling	p. 160
Quality Control	p. 160
How Many Fish in the Pond?	p. 162
Problems 14	p. 164
Differences - Rats and IQs	p. 165
The Significance of Differences	p. 165
Significantly Different - So What!	p. 167
Problem 15	p. 170
Crime is Increasing and Decreasing	p. 171
Crime and the Reporting of Crime	p. 171
The Trend for Overall Crime in England and Wales	p. 172
Vehicle Crime, Burglary, and Violent Crime	p. 174
Homicide	p. 177
Crime and Politicians	p. 179
Problem 16	p. 181
My Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a Day	p. 183
Genetics and Disease	p. 183
The Incidence of Smoking in the United Kingdom	p. 185
The Smoking Lottery	p. 187
Problem 17	p. 189
Chance, Luck, and Making Decisions	p. 191
The Winds of Chance	p. 191
Choices	p. 194
I Want a Lucky General	p. 195
To Fight or Not to Fight - That is the Question	p. 197
The Mathematics of War	p. 200
Problem 18	p. 204
Solutions to Problems	p. 205
Index	p. 221
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

EVERYDAY PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS: Health, Elections, Gambling and War

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Table of Contents